05 Oct 2017 12:39:41
I have a thing where an idea gets in my head and I can’t let it go till I’ve dived into the detail, it’s a mild form of OCD. My latest obsession was inspired by an article that pointed out that Liverpool, on average, win more points with less possession. Basically I looked at all our PL matches under Klopp comparing how much possession we had, what our results were, how many goals we scored and how many conceded.

I initially just looked at the over and under stats for our average possession. Across 75 PL games under Klopp Liverpool have averaged 55.9% possession per game. In games where we have more possession than that we average 1.6pts, 1.69 goals scored and 1.13 conceded, In games where we had less than average possession our points won and goals scored increase to 2 and 2.17 respectively whilst our goals conceded also rises to 1.39.

I thought the over/ under stats where a bit general so I broke the games down further, I looked at home versus away, at matches just against the ‘big six’ and those not including the ‘big six’, I even removed the 15/ 16 season to see if things changed while the team adapted to Klopp’s style. With almost every variable the same pattern emerged, we got better results with less of the ball. The only exception to this rule is when we play away to our ‘big six’ rivals. In those matches the more of the ball we see the better we do.

Looking at the overall results there is a trend. Unsurprisingly in games where we have low possession we don’t do great but we have a sweet spot between 48-57% where we’ve averaged over 2 points a game. Between 58-64% it then drops off again to around 1.4pts before spiking in games we completely dominate (65% possession and over) . Whilst I know that stats aren’t the full story they do support the idea that sitting back, staying organised and allowing Liverpool to keep the ball in midfield is a very effective way of playing against us.

1.) 05 Oct 2017
05 Oct 2017 12:53:56
My head hurts now.

2.) 05 Oct 2017
05 Oct 2017 13:53:23
Sorry reddo, but if it's any consolation I feel much better for getting that out of my system :-)

3.) 05 Oct 2017
05 Oct 2017 14:06:53
Coz we are counter pressing team PutneyRed.

Once opposition sits back and allow us possession our main attributes goes out of window and we tend to struggle.

coz we've got lots of legs/ energy in midfield but lack real quality.

4.) 05 Oct 2017
05 Oct 2017 20:01:41
Good post, Putney. Not a stats guy myself but I see what you are saying. As Kopite7 said, we are a counter pressing team so when we have more possession of the ball, we tend to struggle. However, I do think that we have quality in our midfield in Cou and Lallana (we need both of those guys yesterday) so that is hampering team cos the midfield 3 right now are too similar and lack structure.

I also think we have improved in this regard this season as we are creating more guilt-edged chances vs such teams this season than last season. Last season, we were not creating anywhere near the chances or types of chances we are creating now. Hell, we used to actually end up losing such games instead of winning. The credit goes to Klopp as him signing both Salah and Mane have helped on this front. Could/ Should we have scored more than we are doing now? Absolutely BUT unlike last season, the chances are being created and that to me, is an improvement in itself.