17 Apr 2020 18:08:32
Ed02, when this nightmare is over, life will never be the same again, and all businesses will look at how things are run. One of these will be, in my opinion, unnecessary travel. Do you think clubs will look at flying all around the world, pre-season, to far flung places just to earn a fat buck. This, I'm sure, is one of a multitude of things that will need looking at. Just interested in your view on things. Cheers.
Believable3
Unbelievable0
{Ed002's Note - International travel has been, from a business perspective, something of a matter of cost savings for many years and many businesses try and curtail it. Some business understand they are working in a global market place and carry on as though there is no big deal about it. I fly a lot, I suspect well beyond what many of the people here can comprehend, and that will never recede. I have a PA who does most things for me to make my life tolerable, but right now she is seeing the lockdown out in Israel for me rather than working from her home just outside of Windsor. Clubs will be looking to continue as before and I cannot see any that will be looking to cut team travel at all. Clubs will continue to play internationally and whilst it may well take a year or more to start getting fully back to normal, FIFA and UEFA will continue to look to themselves and not consider others. UEFAs recent threats led to the "elite" sites having a WebEx on Wednesday - without UEFA present.
Football needs to decide what sort of restructuring is required. Putting aside any "breakaway" or counter proposal, my fears have always been the vast number of professional clubs there are in England well below the Premier League. I hold a reasonably strong view in terms of the need to restructure football in Europe in any case. Previously I have said that the eventual "breakaway pan-European league" would force the restructuring of many of the national leagues, possibly resulting in a British league with perhaps only a couple of professional tiers and then regionalised amateur leagues below that. Now we have a situation that will change the financial paradigm and may make clubs and authorities look at the situation with lower tier sides regardless.
Financially I do not see that so many pro sides can be sustained within the sport which, like it or not, will see more and more money going in to the highest levels of the game. Governments will ensure that grassroots sport get funding but everything in the middle (Southern, Northern, Conference, Division 2, Scottish Divisions 1-3, League of Wales will not get the funding needed to continue on any sort of professional basis. For me, clubs should already recognise this and put their efforts in to getting their finances in order to see if they can make it to a British professional league that will need to flourish without perhaps six sides that have eventually gone down the pan-European route - and have gone for good (it would be two or perhaps three initially) or even separation from the Premier League and Championship.
Clubs like Accrington Stanley will need to carry on as amateurs or face extinction (yet again) like Bury. Recently Hartlepool has been struggling - again it needs to adapt. The mighty Third Lanark have started their long journey back to the top - it can be done. These are all proud clubs with a history.
The game has changed significantly and will continue to do so whether the supporters of certain clubs like it or not. Football at the highest level is big business and attracts the sponsorship it does because the sponsors wish to tap in to the disposable income of the fans and ride the back of the advertising that flows naturally from the success some clubs achieve. Long gone are the days of the cloth-capped, hobnailed-booted, chimney sweep making his way, rattle in hand, to cheer on his team at Anfield on a Saturday afternoon. I have explained that there will be changes, probably within the next 8 to 10 years, which will force the restructuring of all of the leagues in Europe and likely do away with the likes of UEFA. You will have the opportunity to see the likes of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Juventus and the other major European sides play in week-on-week regular competition at The Emirates, St James Park, Stamford Bridge or wherever. Fans of the sides who take the plunge will have the opportunity to visit cities such as Milan, Barcelona, Munich, etc. every couple of weeks to watch their team play. If you want to don your cloth cap, have a pint of wallop with your chums before going off to the local match through the grim, wet and cobbled streets of the Northwest of England where there is smog, dead & dying pit ponies laying on the street and only chips and fried curry to eat., perhaps one of the sides from the suburbs will have survived so the Liverpool and Everton supporters can go and watch them?
This will be a case of getting with the game. I will try to referred to this as the "Post Apocalyptic Zombie Scenario" from now on.}
17 Apr 2020 19:51:02
Many thanks for your brilliant reply, Ed02. Much appreciated.
With regards to my point on travel. Shouldn't clubs be factoring in their carbon footprint, moving forward? Or don't they care?
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - Most don’t care - basketball team in the States pay the offset. Not sure many others do.}
17 Apr 2020 20:42:57
Ed002.
What’s your profession that requires the extensive travel.
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - Gentleman adventurer and retired rodeo clown.}
17 Apr 2020 21:16:52
Ed02, with regards to your life as a "gentleman traveller" do you not care about your own carbon footprint? Countless people are saying during this lockdown that technology, nowadays, shouldn't necessitate circumnavigating the globe when one can just sit in front of a laptop to tell someone to sack Brenda in accounts.
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - I “appreciate” the damage I am doing and depending on who books my travel the offset is paid - probably more often than not. I do what I can from my office by spent 226 days in hotels last year.}
18 Apr 2020 09:20:01
Rome for air travel the only people that can make a difference are the airlines by offering less flights.
If Ed002 didn’t fly last year all those flights would still be taking off unless he has a private jet.
Agree0
Disagree0
18 Apr 2020 09:54:19
WYred, if there was less demand for flights, airline companies wouldn't fly empty planes.
Agree1
Disagree0
18 Apr 2020 13:44:18
Some airlines are upping their game in terms of carbon offsetting projects. Work is being done to develop electric planes but batteries are a way off being sophisticated enough yet.
Demand for flights will never go away.
Agree0
Disagree0
18 Apr 2020 14:49:58
Never say never. The world is changing Shaq.
Agree1
Disagree0
18 Apr 2020 16:13:08
Question for ed2 please in the event of a pan European break away league and the beginning of a british league, do you think teams from the Republic of Ireland (although not British) might be included in this league? The appetite for British football over here might make it financially advantageous for such a league? Thanks in advance really appreciate your input and knowledge on this site.
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - Firstly, I think that it is great that the League of Ireland allows clubs from Northern Ireland in, but I think they may well need to integrated further to make it viable - but certainly the matter has been raised in the past, as has integration with Scotland. But unfortunately the politics of the situation could potentially get in the way.
Already we see such stupidity as the Olympic Game where a "Great Britain Olympic football team" represents the UK rather than just Great Britain - and at one point there was a discussion that it should not be allowed at all as there was no GB or UK league.
When eventually the leagues in Great Britain need to reorganise, they should (in my view) include the whole of Ireland howevermuch a bold move it is. The problem will likely be the inability of Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland politicians. But I would like to see it happen.}
18 Apr 2020 19:29:08
To ask what seems to me the obvious question. Are Liverpool 1 of the 6 looking to go into a pan European league?
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - Liverpool are not included in the group of 21 “elite” European sides.}
18 Apr 2020 16:59:56
Thank you so much for your reply and I totally agree with you that it would be politics that's gets in the way but I feel it would add such a different dinamic to a said league people from across all borders would be behind it! Thanks again.
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - So would I.}
19 Apr 2020 12:19:03
The concept of a breakaway league has always upset me, regardless of whether Liverpool were to be involved or not. This period without football though should, I think, act as some small warning to those still looking to wring every last penny from the game. Perspective and time away from the game has made me and a few others that I know of reflect on the fact that I don’t quite miss the game as much as I thought I would, and when football eventually resumes it will presumably not be in front of packed stadiums - and I hope that that will emphasise the importance of the fans.
I don’t mean to sound like a Luddite, but ‘progress’ isn’t always a good thing.
Agree1
Disagree0
19 Apr 2020 16:43:12
I'm more interested in how you get into the "elite" gang? Invite only? Yearly subscription fee? Recent trophy haul? How rich your owner is? Maybe if we actually knew who these "elite" clubs were we could draw our own conclusions?
Agree0
Disagree0
19 Apr 2020 19:18:22
Derry playing in the League of Ireland isn't so great when you factor in that they were forced out of the Northern Irish league in the 70s for what are best described as 'political reasons'.
There is a bit of a push starting in the Republic to have an All-Ireland league, but honestly I don't think the money works. Especially for clubs in the North who'd have much greater travel costs and based on results in Europe and the various attempts at an all-Ireland cup competition in the past few seasons, most of them wouldn't last in the top division with clubs from the Republic to compete with. Not sure it'd do the likes of Wexford and Galway any favours to be going up to Belfast and Ballymena a few times a season either. The IFA are wholly uninterested. Now if it was bundled as a product with a decent TV deal (from who I have no idea. I've seen Asian markets suggested, but they're hardly that bothered with semi-pros they've never heard of? ) that could fork out a decent wedge of prize money, it'd be different. Certainly the League of Ireland needs something anyway.
Hadn't thought about Ireland as part of a pan-British Isles league. Not sure how well it'd work. In terms of structure, facilities, finances etc. surely most Irish clubs are behind current League Two sides in the UK and there'd need to be a lot of money involved to bridge the gap. It might work out for some clubs after some short term pain.
Agree1
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - I am not sure how far behind they would be - particularly when you take account of the Scottish clubs.}
17 Apr 2020 12:31:59
Regardless of what the Premier League say this afternoon (they could just go through the motions and say "intent is to finish" (which it is of course), "need to assess the logistics" (the June 30 issue - which is easily fixed), "can't put a start on when training could start and matches begin", "still looking at options to play games behind closed doors" etc., I very much suspect the season is now done. The RFEF in Spain have announced the major part of their solution (La Liga has one major issue with it (to do with games restarting and stopping again) but have not really addressed the promotion/relegation issue (they have what they think is the answer but have yet to consult I understand - which oddly enough has never stopped them in the past) . There has been a significant backlash in Germany to the proposals to start as soon as they can behind closed doors - which means we could see the original plan to draw a line across etc. back on the table. The position in Italy is clear, the major clubs want a cut off. This afternoon it is likely that nine or ten PL sides will push a motion and ask for a vote to end the season now (they are not going to propose how that happens, as they see that as a specific issue).
Believable6
Unbelievable0
17 Apr 2020 13:14:52
Sucks for us, but I suppose it was inevitable under the circumstances. It's only football at the end of the day, not people's lives (sorry Shanks! )
Thanks Ed.
Agree1
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - I am pretty sure there will be no decision on how it would end today.}
17 Apr 2020 13:16:42
Some kind of simple statistical projection to predict league final positions Ed002?
e. g. CurrentPoints + ( (WinRatio * 3) + (DrawRatio * 1)) * MonteCarloWalkFactor)
Agree1
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - I am afraid nobody will be trying to predict the final table.}
17 Apr 2020 13:51:32
You very much think the season is now done Ed?
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - Why try and change the words I wrote a couple of hours ago.}
17 Apr 2020 14:58:29
Thanks Ed002, be interesting to see how each league decides how to end it.
Agree1
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - Where is comes to it I suspect a similar, albeit not identical, approach. Spain (RFEF) have decided that they will end the season, if the games cannot all be completed (whether they restart or not), by drawing a line across now, not awarding the title, and settling European places based on current positions (with the exception of the Copa del Rey place which if played will go to the winners else to Athletic Bilbao if it can't). The critical point is that if the season restarts but cannot be completed, the results revert to the standings at the start of the suspension - and the results of the games played after the restart would be voided - this is controversial as far as La Liga are concerned and they have a counter proposal that says if the games restart and then stop, those positions should stand. But the decision belongs to RFEF and typically they would overrule La Liga. Whilst they want to complete the league, they too are going to draw a June 30 line across if the games cannot start on May 28 and complete by then – although they have proposed a back stop of the end of July (but nobody wants to use it and clubs don’t wish to exercise it). They have not addressed promotion and relegation completely at this time but seem open to the two up/none down principle as others are considering.}
17 Apr 2020 15:03:58
Thanks a mill for the update ED002 even if its not the answer we were hoping for.
So how I understood this:
You suspect no further games to be played in this season. Still to be determined is how the league finishes whether that be a cut off in the table or null in void season.
Is there a leaning either way in how the season will be finished at this time?
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - Nobody has proposed making the season null and void.}
17 Apr 2020 15:08:36
So Ed02, if the season is done (as I’m sure you’re correct in saying), how likely do you think it is that Liverpool will be champions? I understand it’s impossible to say for sure, either way, but with your knowledge of how things work and the people making the decisions, we’d all be interested to hear your views? Thanks!
Agree1
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - In all probability it would need Liverpool to ask for it and for a separate vote to be taken - and that would need to gain the approval or abstention of the other 19 sides that comprise the Premier League - what is commonly known as a blackball vote. This means if one or more sides were to vote against that proposal it does not pass.}
17 Apr 2020 15:19:24
Thanks Ed002, appreciate your response. That doesn’t sound too promising.
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - We have to wait and see. I will see if I can get some detail later from one of the attendees, but I very much doubt Liverpool were explicitly discussed.}
17 Apr 2020 15:25:18
Again that’s much appreciated Ed002! We all know there are way more important things going on right now, but I guess it still doesn’t prevent the potential disappointment. We are all grateful for you keeping us updated.
Agree1
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - It is really now a matter of waiting.}
17 Apr 2020 15:30:53
Thank you so much Ed!
Just so i'm clear, the PL is likely to follow a similar path to La Lige - if they can start the games by 28th May and complete by 30th June, they will. If not, the season will end, which the details are still to be decided.
Is that correct?
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - Not really. The Premier League will consider the approach La Liga will take if they can't start the games by 28th May and complete by 30th June - with clubs resisting the backstop. The Premier League were a little naive about putting dates on the table originally but are now just delaying the dates as they simply do not know. They are not considering exit plans but are aware of the proposals that are looking favourite in other countries. Some clubs are, I understand, disappointed with this being so open-ended and want some sort of clusure on the season. As I said, it may be a bigger decision to be made when the "lockdown" is reconsidered in three weeks.}
17 Apr 2020 15:32:14
Thanks again Ed002, I am not sure we would ask but could someone else put the motion forward? Also am I right in the understanding an abstention is effectively a yes in that scenario?
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - Yes, another side could put forward a proposal that Liverpool are awarded the title. And generally right, an abstain vote is in reality not a "no" vote and gets discounted. So 10 for (yes) votes and 10 abtain would get the motion past, but 19 for and one against (the black ball) would see it fail.}
17 Apr 2020 15:32:46
That’s good enough and clear enough for me Ed thank you. No way we will ask for it to take it to the vote, and if we did at least a few teams would vote against it.
Absolutely gutted, and we will probably never recover and come this close again. Somethings are bigger than sport though.
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - I would not suggest that Liverpool would "never recover and come this close again". If that were the case, maybe Liverpool cound go and play in the Scottish first division where they do give away titles in such circumstances?.}
17 Apr 2020 18:18:10
Chances of starting games again by 28th of May in England or Spain are pretty slim I would think.
Agree2
Disagree0
17 Apr 2020 18:24:33
Nothing concrete at all and the 30th June deadline was apparently not discussed.
A glimmer of hope yet perhaps?
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - I have explained what was discussed under another post. The June 30 situation was not discussed as they don’t want to mention any dates.}
17 Apr 2020 20:57:57
You still hoping for a glimmer Juicer mate? All my hope has gone mate with what Ed’s has confirmed will happen. Let it go mate, our wait has been 30 years, it might as well be longer.
Agree0
Disagree0
17 Apr 2020 21:23:04
I’ll stick with what I’ve said all along. The history books will show that Liverpool won the 19-20 premier league title. Mark my words. They aren’t guess work.
Agree2
Disagree0
17 Apr 2020 21:23:41
The ED has given his opinion on what will happen, he has confirmed nothing mate, so i suggest you just have some patience and see what happens.
Agree1
Disagree0
17 Apr 2020 22:02:54
So I can see it panning out that the only clubs getting any kind of reward from this ‘season’ will be the bottom 3 who were most likely going down. Brilliant that, be crap for 29 games and get to stay up, be great for 28 games (excluding Watford) and get nothing. And what about those teams at the top of the championship, especially Leeds who’ve been waiting years to get back into the PL. really think they need to find a way to finish the season off somehow.
Agree3
Disagree0
17 Apr 2020 23:06:04
There’s no way they can finish the league by the end of June, they’d have to be willing to go another month I think. And that’s about the best case scenario.
What I can’t get my head around is that they can use the current top 4 to qualify for next season’s CL yet can’t decide relegation by the same measure. And that potentially they can promote Leeds Utd and West Brom but can’t have a PL winner when we’re so far ahead. So that particular whole idea is a non-runner for me.
They’ve got to find a way to finish the games if at all possible and I strongly think that, in the circumstances, the time allowed has to be extended.
But, again, this all depends on the public health picture and of course that takes precedence.
Agree1
Disagree0
18 Apr 2020 06:11:17
Mathematically, we need one more win to get the title, away at city.
I propose we play that game before any new season starts. If we win, we get the title, if not, no one does.
Thats better and fairer than saying "top 4 get champions league, bottom 3 stay up, no title"
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed001's Note - in what way is it 'fairer'?}
18 Apr 2020 09:26:11
How would you end it ed001?
Agree0
Disagree0
{Ed001's Note - if it can't be completed, then it has to be voided. Personally though, I would not even consider a new season until this one is finished.}
18 Apr 2020 10:29:37
I’m with you on that it would be best to finish what you’ve started but I think there is that much planning that goes into a new season, fixtures logistics etc that knocking back a season will have such a big knock on effect.
Personally if uefa are so bothered about getting leagues finished I’d scrap the euros completely as that gives next summer as a buffer.
Agree0
Disagree0
18 Apr 2020 12:59:17
Have to agree with Ed001 in that plans to start a new season shouldn’t be before this one is complete, whenever that might be. I know there are far more considerations than I could possibly understand, but football should and will need to be flexible. Coronavirus is likely to be with us for quite some time and personally I can’t see next season starting on time either. I really don’t understand the necessity to draw a line?
Stay safe all🤞.
Agree0
Disagree0
18 Apr 2020 15:19:42
Agree with WyRed here. Euros are pointless for me so they should scrap those to let all the leagues finish and then run on longer in 2021. Even more so given the format which is chock full of travel around a Europe!
Agree0
Disagree0
19 Apr 2020 12:24:13
I agree entirely with ed1, and it’s not got anything to do with Liverpool, but the order of priority should be complete this season and then deal with future seasons at that point. It makes no sporting sense to just abandon this season, I appreciate that ed2 tends to point out that that isn’t necessarily financially or organisationally a better thing to do, but as fans I think most would consider it most important to resolve the season that exists.
Agree1
Disagree0
19 Apr 2020 12:32:14
I would just like to add my thanks to ed2, absolutely phenomenal insight into what is going on and I think we all really appreciate the information you are passing on. Thanks mate.
Agree3
Disagree0
{Ed002's Note - You are very sweet.}