24 May 2018 16:59:14
I wanted to bring a bit of science into the "Liverpool have a dodgy defence" debate, so had a look at the goalkeeping stats on the EPL website and did some analysis (sorry Ed001, its statistics again! ) .

We have the second fewest Shots on Goal (106, behind City on 85) and the second fewest overall shots against (281, again behind City on 234).

We also have the joint second most Clean Sheets (17, tied with City and behind United on 19).

Different to our main top 6 rivals, we have a 50:50 split between 2 keepers in terms of games played, therefore we don't get any keepers into the top 5 clean sheets by keeper - Karius is joint 7th with 10 clean sheets from his 19 games.

Looking at Goals Conceded vs Shots on Goal, Mignolet is one of the worst keepers in the league this season - he conceded from 39.3% of the shots on goal he faced. To give context, the only keepers (who have played 5 or more games) who have a worse percentage are:

Joe Hart (19 games) - 41.9% of Shots on Goal resulted in a goal
Orestis Karnezis (14 games) - 42.9%

Karius's equivalent is 31.1%, which places him roughly in the middle of the 27 keepers who have played in 5 or more games. However, the ones with better ratios than him are mainly around the 28-30% mark. Exceptions being De Gea (unsurprisingly! ) at 19.4% and Pope at 23.3%. As an aside, Butland is at 29.8%.

The points I'm trying to make here are:

1) despite the perception of our shaky defence, that hasn't translated to shots on goal or even goal scoring opportunities (2nd best behind City in both) .

2) Karius, whilst not the best, has been performing, certainly in terms of shot stopping, on a par with most Premier League shot stoppers.

3) Mignolet hasn't!

4) The difference that an exceptional shot stopper can make is evident at both Burnley and Man Utd. I would hazard a guess that they are worth 2-3 places a season if not more.

I still think Karius deserves one more season to see if he can get into the De Gea/ Pope league, and I can now back that up with stats rather than just a gut feel.


1.) 24 May 2018
24 May 2018 19:49:38
Well said Zed! Completely agree with Karius deserving another season!


2.) 24 May 2018
24 May 2018 21:31:54
I'm pretty sure since Jan when VVD and Karius came in we've got top 1/ 2 defensive records in the Prem, give a dog bad name and all that.


3.) 24 May 2018
24 May 2018 23:40:56
Zed, I like your post but I disagree with you on one point. Saying he should be giving another season to see if he can be a DDG (Pope is not better than him, IMO), is not the right way to do things, IMO. What continues to do my head in (not anything you did, Zed) is this constant comparison people always make btw DDG and Karius. To me, it just smacks of laziness and an lack of context and nuance.

People seem to forget that it took DDG a good TWO years of constant game time, for him to even get to the "good GK" level at Utd. In his first two years, he was pretty poor. I did not say that, Rio did. Rio Ferdinand once said that Fergie was so lost that he would come consult he and the senior players as to what GK he should pick btw DDG and a certain Tomasz Kusczak. Yeah, crazy, right?

Constantly comparing DDG to Karius is unfair to Karius as he has not been the full time starter for a full season yet which is why I don't do it. If we are going to compare them, they should be compared based on the amount of time they have been starters cos doing it from each one's current standing, is dishonest and unfavorable to Karius and will always be fav. to DDG. If people wanna do that then they will always have something to moan about which again, is counter productive. Just my opinion.


4.) 25 May 2018
25 May 2018 08:17:21
Brover, I take your point mate. However, DDG when he arrived in Manchester was 20- young for any player, not least a GK. He had 1.5 seasons in the top flight behind him with Atletico (not counting the games with the AM 'B' team) .

Karius was just turning 23 when he joined us. Still very young for a GK, but he already had, pretty much, 3 full seasons in the Bundesliga with Mainz behind him.

Both of them had to adapt to a new team, under intense pressure, but Karius was by far the more experienced, and older, GK.

In giving Karius a full pre-season and season behind a relatively settled back 4 will, imo, be good enough for us and the management to decide whether he has what it takes to be our No 1 for years to come. I hope that's the case, as I see a lot of good things in him. I like his distribution and the quickness of release - so crucial to our counter attacking as it was when Reina was between the posts. I don't like his awareness and tendency to punch, more often than not back into danger, which hopefully he can improve on. For what its worth, I think having Reina here, sharing knowledge and experience with him as the no 3, would be great.

On the point about Pope, I'm only looking at shot stopping stats here, and on that basis, Pope is the second best GK in the league. Says nothing about him commanding his area, distribution, confidence and all the myriad of other things that make a good (or bad) keeper. But purely on shot stopping, Pope is second only to De Gea, and much better than Karius at the moment.

{Ed001's Note - but you are complaining about Karius knocking the ball back into danger, yet not taking any account of all the saves Pope makes which do exactly the same thing.}


5.) 25 May 2018
25 May 2018 08:32:09
Hey Ed001, wasn't saying anything about Pope other than referencing his shot stopping stats, and to be honest, I don't watch much other football than our matches, hence just the stats.

If Pope also pushes things back into dangerous areas, then that's something I would dislike about his game too.

The point I'm trying to make (badly I think! ), is that the stats I have looked at seem to back up the fact that Migs is toast, and Karius is part of a pack of decent EPL GKs based on shots per goal. On that basis, I would give him at least another season to see if he can improve even further.

I stand by my view that an excellent GK can be worth 2-3 places a season, but you don't have to have the best GK to be the best team. Ederson concedes goals from 32.9% of shots he has faced in the EPL, worse than Karius, but City's overall game quality meant that he had to face fewer shots and they scored more goals.

However, having a very good/ excellent GK, as well a fantastic team around him, would make us world beaters! I hope that's where we get to under Klopp.

{Ed001's Note - shot stopping stats are only a tiny part of the story and I really wish people would stop using stats without context.}


6.) 25 May 2018
25 May 2018 09:00:24
I agree about using stats without context, Ed001, hence referencing that in my first post, and my point on Ederson above who has poorer stats than Karius and a lot of other GKs and yet seems to suit the way City play.

My only reason for using them was actually in defence of Karius. There's been a long running debate on whether he is the answer or not - based a lot on people's gut feel and knee jerk reactions - so I thought looking at some stats on one aspect of GK abilities would help add some science to the debate.

What surprised me in the research was the 'shots' and 'shots on goal' against stats across the league. This backs up my thought that actually our defence are not that bad at all, in fact, in reducing goal scoring opportunities, the stats suggest they are up there with the best.

My 'pop-science' theory on the perception is that we are indeed our own harshest critics as we tend to watch every minute of our games. Not sure there's anyone (Adam and you excepted! ) who watch that many games involving our rivals. Therefore we will always dwell on our mistakes and compare, for example, mistakes in 90 mins vs the highlight reels of other teams on MoTD. Obviously, we would therefore think worse of our team's defence than others.

Anyway, was interesting researching and analysing, wish I had more time! This would've made a great 'Stats' dissertation at Uni!

{Ed001's Note - I wasn't having a go at your thinking, just the use of stats in the way you did. You are still using very specific isolated stats without the context of the game it is in. I mean it is all well and good saying we conceded less shots, but you have not looked at whether that is affected by us having more/less/same possession or whether the areas the opponents have played in has affected the results. Has the defence just benefitted from the attack scaring opponents into committing less bodies forward, so making it easier to deal with their attacks? All of those kind of things come into it as well, that just taking a couple of stats in isolation really shows little.}


7.) 25 May 2018
25 May 2018 09:18:15
Totally agree Ed001, hence I'd have loved to have had the time to try to look at the overall picture, using numbers. Possession, time in each third of the pitch and so many more. There is a model that can be built here. Not to offer a one size fits all, but to help study and understand the game more. I'm sure such models exist in clubs, and form part of the understanding of the game, its just fascinating to see how stats so (and sometimes don't) back common perceptions.

{Ed001's Note - I will expect that model completed and on my desk by the end of the holidays Zed....}


8.) 25 May 2018
25 May 2018 09:27:56
I'm not dressing up as a schoolboy, Tris, not matter how many times you ask!


Not again, anyway.

{Ed001's Note - I thought it would make a change from your usual schoolgirl outfit.}


9.) 25 May 2018
25 May 2018 09:45:08
Sssshhhhhhh!


10.) 25 May 2018
25 May 2018 21:13:09
Great convo, Ed and Zed. Zed, I watch a lot of our rivals play and GK's as well cos that is the topic. Stats do not mean much cos as Ed said, it leaves out SO much that it is not worth even discussing them. As a GK, I agree with you that Karius has a lot of tools that even DDG did not have when he came to Utd. What he needs to improve upon is his presence, his reflexes and develop stronger wrists to allow him to punch the ball much further from his goal. He is rough around the edges and those need to be fine-tuned. I remember Ed01 sayin that Karius is a "very competent" GK which is a pretty good floor to improve upon cos IMO, Pope is not as competent as him esp. judging by the fact that he plays in a very defensive system at Burnley while Karius plays in a very open system. Stats won't show you any of that now, will they? Nice discussion tho. I truly enjoyed it.